Quarterly report · Q3 2026 · data as of August 24, 2026
State of California Solar Saturation
12.7% of comparable California homes already have solar. The other 87.3% is the market — and it is not spread evenly. Below is where it sits, by metro, by utility, and by city, computed from county assessor parcels joined to municipal permit records.
- Saturation
- 12.7%
- Parcels analyzed
- 459,387
- Permits joined
- 58,490
- Cities covered
- 31
Saturation by metro
Ranked by parcels analyzed. A low rate on a large parcel base is the most valuable row on this table — that is unworked turf at scale.
| Metro | Saturation | Parcels | Permits | Cities |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sacramento | 6.2% | 95,180 | 5,931 | 3 |
| San Fernando Valley | 23.4% | 65,215 | 15,266 | 9 |
| San Diego | 43.1% | 63,981 | 27,574 | 2 |
| San Jose | 2.8% | 60,943 | 1,720 | 1 |
| Inland Empire San Bernardino | 0.4% | 44,488 | 185 | 6 |
| Fresno | 6.2% | 38,894 | 2,395 | 2 |
| Bakersfield | 0.3% | 33,662 | 91 | 1 |
| Northeast LA | 15.9% | 20,124 | 3,204 | 3 |
| Ventura | 0.8% | 14,043 | 111 | 2 |
| East Bay | 7.0% | 13,306 | 926 | 1 |
| Harbor Area | 11.4% | 9,551 | 1,087 | 3 |
Saturation by utility
Utility territory decides the pitch before geography does — rate structure, export credit, and bill pain all change at the boundary.
| Utility | Saturation | Parcels | Permits |
|---|---|---|---|
| PG&E | 3.5% | 146,805 | 5,132 |
| SMUD | 6.2% | 95,180 | 5,931 |
| LADWP | 20.6% | 94,203 | 19,406 |
| SDG&E | 43.1% | 63,981 | 27,574 |
| SCE | 0.8% | 59,218 | 447 |
Least saturated cities
The most open turf in the covered markets.
- Santee0.1%
- Hesperia0.2%
- Fresno0.2%
- Fontana0.3%
- Bakersfield0.3%
- Rancho Cucamonga0.5%
- Elk Grove0.6%
- Victorville0.6%
- San Bernardino0.7%
- Highland0.7%
Most saturated cities
Where a cold-knock day costs the most.
- San Diego48.7%
- Porter Ranch43.0%
- Granada Hills40.6%
- Northridge38.9%
- Canoga Park36.8%
- Reseda27.7%
- Sunland27.5%
- West Hills27.5%
- Van Nuys23.8%
- Los Angeles20.6%
Method, and what these numbers can't tell you
Saturation is permitted residential solar installations divided by comparable owner-occupied single-family parcels, computed per city-and-utility cell — 34 cells in this edition — then weighted by parcel count. Cells under 30 parcels are dropped before anything is published, so no figure here can be walked back to a household.
A cell also has to clear a coverage bar of 10 permits on record to appear at all. Permit adapters come online market by market, and a city with a single permit across ten thousand parcels tells you about our ingestion, not about its rooftops. Counting those as zero would hand you a “least saturated” list built from missing data — so they are held back until the records land.
Permits lag physical installs by weeks, and a handful of jurisdictions report on their own schedule. Every rate on this page is therefore a floor on true adoption, not a ceiling. Records refresh monthly; this edition is dated August 24, 2026.
Coverage is the markets KnockGenius has ingested and verified, not all of California. A city absent from this report has no verified data behind it yet — which is different from having no solar.
Questions
- How is solar saturation calculated?
- Permitted residential solar installations divided by comparable owner-occupied single-family parcels, computed per city-and-utility cell from county assessor records joined to municipal permit data. A cell is published only if it clears both bars: at least 30 parcels, and at least 10 permits on record.
- Why would a city I know be missing?
- Because its permit records have not landed yet. County and municipal permit adapters come online market by market, and a city with one permit on file across ten thousand parcels is unmeasured, not unsaturated — publishing it as 0% would be a data-ingestion artifact dressed up as a finding. Those cells are held back until coverage clears the bar.
- Why is the statewide number parcel-weighted?
- Averaging city percentages would let a 40-parcel cell count as much as a 4,000-parcel city. Every figure on this page weights each cell by its parcel count, so the statewide rate reflects homes rather than place names.
- How current is this data?
- Assessor and permit records refresh monthly. Permits lag physical installs by weeks — a roof that went up last month may not appear until the next refresh — so treat these rates as a floor on true adoption, not a ceiling.
Citing this report
Free to quote with attribution to KnockGenius, State of California Solar Saturation, Q3 2026. The per-city and per-utility breakdowns behind these tables are public at /solar-territories.